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The outlook for 2022 was more confident again for the bulk of coatings manufacturers after it had been thought that the Covid-19 pandemic had been overcome and that the worst was over. However, the war in Ukraine has turned the fragile global recovery on its head, triggered a devastating humanitarian crisis, driven up food and commodity prices, slowed global growth, and exacerbated inflationary pressures around the world.

From one day to the next, Ukraine – a reliable raw materials supplier of important basic chemicals such as ammonia, titanium ore (ilmenite) and sulphuric acid – was gone, and that further aggravated the raw materials situation in the global coatings and chemicals industry. Ammonia’s importance to the coatings and raw materials industry should not be underestimated, as it is used to produce urea, nitric acid, hydroxylamines, amines, hydrazine and nitriles – all of which are also major precursors for coatings raw materials. In addition, ammonia, the basis of nitrogen products, is directly dependent on natural gas for its manufacture.

乌克兰是氨、钛矿(钛铁矿)和硫酸等重要基础化学品的可靠原材料供应商,然而战争一天天的进展下来,战争情势加剧了全球涂料和化工行业的原材料形势.氨对涂料和原材料工业的重要性不应被低估,因为它被用于生产尿素、硝酸、羟胺、胺、肼和腈——所有这些都是涂料原材料的主要前体.此外,氮产品的基础氨的制造直接依赖于天然气.

Already, initial price increases for nitrogen products of more than 40 percent have been reported. In addition, the situation is being made worse by numerous global force majeures that have been declared on basic chemicals. For example, in March 2022, BASF Petronas Chemicals (BPC) announced force majeure for shipments of its acrylic acid and acrylic esters from its production facilities in Gebeng, Kuantan, Malaysia. In May 2022, Celanese Corporation declared force majeure for all its acetyl chain and acetate tow products in the Americas and EMEA regions. This affected vinyl acetate (VAM), ethyl acetate, acetic anhydride, and subsequently cellulose acetate and various emulsions of these chemicals. It probably stemmed from the reduced availability of acetic acid, which is the essential precursor for all these basic chemicals. Shortages of methanol, a precursor for acetic acid production, are also conceivable.

据报道,氮素产品的最初价格已经上涨了40%以上.此外,对基本化学品宣布的许多全球不可抗力使情况更加恶化.例如,2022年3月,巴斯夫Petronas Chemicals (BPC)宣布其在马来西亚关丹格本(Gebeng)生产发货的丙烯酸和丙烯酸酯遭遇了运输方面的不可抗力.2022年5月,塞拉尼斯公司宣布其在美洲和EMEA地区的所有乙酰链和醋酸酯束产品遭遇不可抗力. 乙酸是所有这些基本化学物质的基本前体,可能是因为乙酸的供应减少了,这一不可抗力影响了醋酸乙烯酯(VAM),乙酸乙酯,乙酸酐,以及随后的醋酸纤维素和这些化学品的相关各种乳剂.当然,生产醋酸的前体原料甲醇的短缺也是可以想象的.

In addition, the war in Ukraine has further increased the pressure on supply chains. So far, it has led to a shortage of some 100,000 Ukrainian and Russian truck drivers in Europe. Added to which, cargo airlines are having to accept longer routes because Russian airspace has been closed, a fact which has led to extremely high cost increases. To blame everything on the war in Ukraine alone is to see things too simply, however. The situation was exacerbated by the strict “zero-Covid strategy” and numerous lockdown measures, and shows just how dependent the chemicals industry now is on China. The result was the weeks-long closure of the world’s largest seaport, which is in Shanghai and through which more than twenty percent of Chinese exports are shipped, as well as the shutdown of countless foreign and domestic factories. The combination of war in Ukraine and supply chain problems from China contributed to a significant collapse in industrial production.

The watershed proclaimed in political circles in Western countries is currently leading to a fundamental rethink within most companies in the coatings and chemicals industries. Nothing will ever be the same again. We in the chemicals industry find ourselves in a phase of utter upheaval. Companies should review their current business models as quickly as possible and develop new strategies. The upheaval is being intensified by the European Green Deal, the first step of which seeks to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 % by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. The second is to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050 and further promote the circular economy in Europe. If these goals are to be achieved, most companies in European industry will have to transition their solvent-based product portfolios to eco-friendly paint technologies and coating processes within a short period of time and forge ahead with the increased use of renewable energies. The coatings and chemicals industry faces very significant challenges, but these are necessary for the survival and growth of the industry.

欧洲绿色协议(European Green Deal)加剧了这一剧变,该协议的第一步是寻求到2030年将温室气体排放量在1990年的基础上至少减少55%.二是到2050年将温室气体净排放量降至零,并进一步推动欧洲循环经济.如果要实现这些目标,欧洲工业中的大多数公司将不得不在短时间内将其溶剂型产品组合过渡到环保涂料技术和涂层工艺,并随着可再生能源的使用增加而向前迈进.涂料和化学品行业面临着非常重大的挑战,但这些是该行业生存和发展所必需的.

Before the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, distance and transportation were not an issue when it came to building up global supply chains. They were an integral part of many companies in the coatings and chemicals industries in Europe. In the current situation, these companies need to realign their raw materials strategy for the future. Severely congested transportation facilities for air cargo and sea containers as well as delivery delays caused by government-imposed lockdowns in China led to a further increase in transportation tariffs in 2022. As a result of the enormous cost of energy and fuel, increases in freight costs of 30-45 % have been announced for ocean freight shipping in the third quarter of 2022. In addition, climate change is expected to increase the likelihood of extreme weather-related disruptions to global supply chains.

在新冠肺炎疫情爆发之前,在构建全球供应链方面,距离和交通不是问题.他们是欧洲涂料和化工行业许多公司不可分割的一部分.在目前的情况下,这些公司需要重新调整未来的原材料战略.航空货物和海运集装箱运输设施严重拥堵,以及中国政府实施的封锁造成的交货延误,导致2022年运输关税进一步提高.由于能源和燃料成本巨大,已导致2022年第三季度海洋货运成本将上涨30- 45%.此外,气候变化预计将增加与极端天气相关的全球供应链中断的可能性.

Transportation capacity for non-chemical products by rail on the Silk Road has been shifted to ships due to the risk of blockading by Russia. This will take away capacity from sea containers for basic liquid chemicals, which are not allowed to be transported by rail on the Silk Road. Shipping carries ninety percent of world trade and is responsible for about 3 % of global CO2 emissions. In 2021, a total of 5,434 container ships were engaged in international maritime trade. The cost of ocean freight is expected to keep rising in the coming years, as the International Maritime Organisation agreed in June 2021 to new watered-down regulations aimed at cutting carbon emissions by eleven percent between 2023 and 2026. From 2023 on, all ships engaged in international trade will be placed in different categories and will have to apply for an international energy efficiency certificate (Carbon Intensity Indicator) at the time of their first survey. The purpose of this is to raise the pressure on shipping companies to use efficient ships only. Older ships will have to undergo costly retrofitting. Otherwise, they will only be permitted to operate at lower speeds, so as to reduce CO2 emissions. By way of incentive, the ships with the lowest emissions will pay lower port fees. These measures will inevitably raise logistics costs even further. In addition, inland shipping in Europe has been somewhat curtailed by the recent heat wave, as water levels have fallen more sharply this summer. Some freighters are only able to carry half their usual loads. The Rhine is an important lifeline for the German chemicals industry situated along its banks. Chemical and industrial companies have therefore already started switching to rail and truck capacity. This will possibly give rise to further shortages / cost increases relating to transport capacity.

从2023年起,所有从事国际贸易的船舶将被分为不同的类别,并必须在首次调查时申请国际能源效率证书(碳强度指标).这样做的目的是提高航运公司只使用高效船舶的压力.老旧的船只将不得不进行昂贵的改装.否则,它们只能以较低的速度运行,以减少二氧化碳排放.通过激励,排放最低的船舶将支付较低的港口费用.这些措施将不可避免地进一步提高物流成本.此外,由于今年夏天水位下降得更厉害,最近的热浪在一定程度上限制了欧洲的内陆航运.一些货轮只能装载平时货物的一半.莱茵河是位于其两岸的德国化工工业的重要生命线.因此,化工和工业公司已经开始转向铁路和卡车运力.这可能会导致与运输能力有关的进一步短缺/成本增加.

However, European consumers in particular are paying more attention now than in the past to the carbon footprint generated during the manufacture and transport of products. The coatings and chemicals industries, along with ocean freight companies, are coming under renewed pressure to manage and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. There is a clear trend among coatings manufacturers to increasingly request product carbon footprints (PCFs) before purchasing aqueous polyacrylic emulsions and other raw materials, for example. The PCF captures the CO2 emissions generated by a product or service from raw materials to manufacturing through to delivery. The chemicals industry and coatings manufacturers need to pay more attention to the carbon footprint of their raw materials and coatings formulations.

然而,欧洲消费者现在比过去更加关注产品制造和运输过程中产生的碳足迹.涂料和化工行业以及海运公司正面临着管理和减少温室气体排放的新压力.例如,涂料制造商在购买水性聚丙烯酸乳液和其他原材料之前,越来越多地要求产品碳足迹(pcf),这是一个明显的趋势.PCF收集产品或服务从原材料到制造再到交付所产生的二氧化碳排放.化工行业和涂料制造商需要更加关注其原材料和涂料配方的碳足迹.

It may be assumed that, in the foreseeable future, the carbon footprint will play a prominent role in the selection of raw materials in the course of coatings development. Already, raw materials sourced from Asia are being scrutinised more than usual. Some reputable chemicals companies have stopped using raw materials from Asia in an effort to reduce the CO2 footprint of their products / formulations.

Rising prices for crude oil and key commodities are increasing the cost pressures on all petrochemical and chemical products around the world. Europe is being hit particularly hard by the rising price of natural gas – the chemicals industry’s main energy source – compared to cheaper energy stocks in North America and more diversified and cheaper energy sources in Asia (coal and fuel oil).

The unusual volatility in the commodity markets is causing companies to review contracts for key commodities, chemicals and polymers in Europe. Delivery contracts that did not include energy clauses for 2022 are being forced to impose energy surcharges or price hikes. The high energy prices are threatening the already weak growth of the European economy and future demand for commodities. Producers of caprolactam (a capping agent for polyisocyanates) have already implemented price increases of between EUR 1,000 and EUR 1,300/tonne for second-quarter deliveries, up more than 35 % over the previous price. This pressure will therefore be passed on to the downstream industries.

大宗商品市场的异常波动,正促使企业重新审视欧洲主要大宗商品,化学品和聚合物的合同.不包括2022年能源条款的交付合同将被迫征收能源附加费或涨价.大幅上涨的能源价格正威胁着本已疲弱的欧洲经济增长和未来的大宗商品需求.己内酰胺(一种多异氰酸酯封盖剂)生产商已经实施了第二季度交货价格上涨1000欧元至1300欧元/吨,比之前的价格上涨了35%以上.因此,这种压力将被转嫁到下游行业.

On the other hand, numerous coatings manufacturers are accusing the supply industry of raising their prices excessively. Leading managers from the coatings industry fear that commodity suppliers could be exploiting the situation so as to maximise their profits. They believe that, in raising prices above the level of cost increases, sectors of the industry will drive up the high inflation rates even further.

In the wake of the extreme price increases in recent years, titanium dioxide is now the “white gold” for the coatings industry. Global consumption of titanium dioxide in 2021 ran to about 6.6 million tonnes, worth approx. EUR 27 billion The largest consumer of titanium dioxide, accounting for 56 % of this amount or 3.7 million tonnes, is the paint and coatings industry. In 2020 / 2021, global production capacity for titanium dioxide was about 8.5 million tonnes. The bulk of that capacity is distributed across Asia-Pacific, North America and Europe, with Asia-Pacific being the leading region in terms of the global market capacity for titanium dioxide. Since 2016, production capacity has accounted for more than 50 % and reached nearly 59 % in 2021. China has the largest production capacity for titanium dioxide in the world.

随着近年来价格的极端上涨,二氧化钛现在是涂料行业的“白金”.2021年全球钛白粉消费量约为660万吨,价值约.270亿欧元二氧化钛的最大消费者是油漆和涂料行业,占总量的56%,即370万吨.2020 / 2021年,全球二氧化钛产能约为850万吨.其中大部分产能分布在亚太地区、北美和欧洲,亚太地区是全球钛白粉市场容量的主要地区.2016年以来,产能占比超过50%,2021年达到近59%.中国拥有世界上最大的二氧化钛生产能力.

Recently, there has been increased volatility in titanium dioxide prices, with huge variations occurring in the prices of basic raw materials, such as ilmenite and rutile. Titanium dioxide manufacturers claim that not only volatile raw materials prices and rising energy costs but also shifting import and export regulations along with stricter environmental protection requirements are leading to higher sales prices. All these regulations are restricting the production of titanium dioxide in many regions and further affecting the growth of the titanium dioxide market. Moreover, these manufacturing processes are energy-intensive. Both the chloride and the sulphate processes have a substantial impact on the environment, with chloride technology being the gentler of the two. Comparison of both processes shows that the chloride process generates less waste, requires less energy, and is less labour intensive than its sulphate counterpart. The onus is on titanium dioxide manufacturers here to make their processes even more eco-friendly.

最近,二氧化钛的价格波动加剧,钛铁矿和金红石等基本原材料的价格变化很大.二氧化钛制造商声称,不仅原材料价格波动和能源成本上涨,而且进出口法规的变化以及更严格的环保要求也导致了销售价格的上涨.所有这些规定都限制了许多地区二氧化钛的生产,并进一步影响了二氧化钛市场的增长.

The growth of the market for inorganic titanium dioxide pigments is primarily being driven by the growth of the global construction industry. The Chinese titanium dioxide industry more than doubled its total production, from 1.47 million tonnes in 2010 to approximately 3.51 million tonnes in 2020 / 2021. China has been and continues to be partly responsible for the price cycles witnessed over the last decade.

Shifts in market share outside China are closely correlated with domestic demand and capacity utilisation inside the country. Exports of titanium dioxide from China are increasing year by year and may further accelerate the closure of foreign production of titanium dioxide by the sulphate process. The latter process dominates titanium dioxide production in China, with an 85-86 % market share. The chloride process has so far failed to spread significantly in China because it is more difficult to control and there is a lack of know-how.

中国境外市场份额的变化与国内需求和产能利用密切相关.中国钛白粉出口逐年增加,可能会进一步加速国外硫酸盐法生产钛白粉的关闭.后者在中国钛白粉生产中占主导地位,市场份额为85- 86%.氯化法迄今未能在中国广泛推广,因为它更难控制,而且缺乏技术诀窍. 目前,中国只有少数几家公司部署了它,如罗蒙佰利、锦州钛业和云南新力,后者于2019年被罗蒙佰利收购.据估计,中国钛白粉总产量中约有12- 15%是氯化物基的.相比之下,氯化物工艺占全球二氧化钛产量的40%以上.

Depending on the titanium mineral raw material employed, the sulphate process requires 2.4-3.5 tonnes of concentrated sulphuric acid (H2SO4) per tonne of TiO2. The importance of sulphuric acid is often underestimated, even though globally it is the largest-volume chemical in terms of production and the most widely used. It is a key product for the chemicals industry and finds direct or indirect application in almost all chemical processes. More especially, it is essential for basic processes. Many products cannot be produced without the use of sulphuric acid or, if so, only at much greater expense. In 2020, the global market for sulphuric acid was almost 260 million tonnes.

根据所使用的钛矿物原料,硫酸盐工艺需要2.4-3.5吨浓硫酸(H2SO4)每吨TiO2.尽管在全球范围内,硫酸是产量最大、使用最广泛的化学品,但它的重要性往往被低估.它是化学工业的关键产品,在几乎所有化学过程中都有直接或间接应用.更具体地说,它是基本过程所必需的.许多产品不使用硫酸就无法生产,如果不使用硫酸,成本就会大得多.

Chinese production of titanium dioxide by the sulphate process is suffering from fluctuating commodity prices on the global sulphur market, as China depends on sulphur imports from major exporting countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Iran, India, Qatar, India, and Russia. Therefore, any change in the price of sulphur on the international market directly affects the price of sulphuric acid and thus the price of titanium dioxide. Global producers of titanium dioxide will likely invest more in the chloride process for producing titanium dioxide. The sulphate process is on the decline. Global expansion currently underway on the part of Chinese titanium dioxide producers may lead to the closure of global production sites. Here, titanium dioxide producers should be aware of their importance to the market and should take timely action to remain competitive.

2020年,全球硫酸市场近2.6亿吨.由于中国依赖从阿联酋,伊朗,印度,卡塔尔,印度和俄罗斯等主要出口国进口硫磺,中国通过硫酸盐工艺生产的二氧化钛正受到全球硫磺市场大宗商品价格波动的影响.因此,国际市场上硫磺价格的任何变化都会直接影响硫酸的价格,从而影响二氧化钛的价格.全球钛白粉生产商可能会加大对生产钛白粉的氯化物工艺的投资.硫酸盐工艺正在衰落.中国钛白粉生产商目前正在进行的全球扩张可能会导致全球生产基地的关闭.在这里,二氧化钛生产商应该意识到他们对市场的重要性,并应及时采取行动保持竞争力.

Where technically feasible, titanium dioxide should be eliminated, or its use concentration reduced to an acceptable level. Our 2022 analysis of titanium dioxide savings in the coatings industry shows considerable potential for average savings of 15-20 %, without serious impairment of performance. At most and to an extent depending on the application, we identified that there is scope for eliminating as much as 70% titanium dioxide from formulations. This translates to annual global savings of 550,000 - 740,000 tonnes of titanium dioxide and potential annual savings of EUR 2.0 - 2.8 billion for paint and coatings manufacturers.

在具备技术可行性的情况下,应消除二氧化钛,或将其使用浓度降低到可接受的水平.我们对涂料行业2022年钛白粉节能情况的分析显示,平均节能15- 20%的潜力相当大,而且不会对性能造成严重损害.我们发现,从配方中最多可去除70%的二氧化钛,这在一定程度上取决于应用.这意味着全球每年可节省55 - 74万吨二氧化钛,并为油漆和涂料制造商每年节省20 - 28亿欧元.

The duration and consequences of the current Covid-19 and energy crisis are not yet foreseeable. But it is certain that we will overcome this crisis and emerge from it stronger. Apart from the current challenges, we are facing profound structural change and a realignment of the global economy and supply chains. But it is not just about overcoming the current crisis. Companies in the chemical and coatings industry will have to re-orient and, in some cases, reinvent themselves.

当前新冠肺炎疫情和能源危机的持续时间和后果尚不可预见.但可以肯定的是,我们将克服这场危机,并变得更加强大.除了当前面临的挑战外,我们还面临深刻的结构变革和全球经济和供应链的调整.但这不仅仅是为了克服当前的危机.化工和涂料行业的公司将不得不重新定位,在某些情况下,重塑自己.

In addition to raw materials availability, dependence on global raw materials suppliers is coming under scrutiny. Geopolitical factors are also playing a growing role. Large chemical concerns such as Henkel have already responded to the crisis by merging their business units to create leaner structures. They are hoping to achieve synergistic effects that will enable them to respond more agilely and, above all, more flexibly to changes. Companies in the chemical and coatings industry should prepare themselves more intensively for future crises and strengthen their resilience, for example, by diversifying their sources of raw materials and their coatings formulations.

除了原材料供应,对全球原材料供应商的依赖也在受到审视.地缘政治因素也在发挥越来越大的作用.汉高(Henkel)等大型化工企业已通过合并业务部门来应对危机,以打造更精简的结构.它们希望实现协同增效,使它们能够更灵活地,尤其是更灵活地对变化作出反应.化工和涂料行业的公司应更深入地为未来的危机做好准备,并加强其抵御能力,例如,通过多样化原材料来源和涂料配方.

At the same time, they should slash the number of raw materials used and so reduce complexity. Resilience is the ability to survive difficult market situations without lasting impairment. Numerous coatings manufacturers are also toying with the idea of buying into raw materials supply chains so as to better secure raw materials supplies in the future. The acquisition of Specialty Polymers, a manufacturer of aqueous emulsions, by Sherwin-Williams at the end of 2021 is one such example.