Automotive coatings: Getting Back on solid ground?
汽车涂料:脚重踏实地?
Damir Gagro
The automotive industry has recently been as heavily affected as the automotive coatings producers.
How is the market for automotive coatings developing currently?
汽车行业最近受到的影响与汽车涂料生产商一样严重.
目前汽车涂料市场发展如何?
The global sales of new cars had already reached its peak in 2017 with more than 97 million units - passenger cars and commercial vehicles. Since then, the declining momentum in the emerging markets, especially the BRIC countries, has led to a drop-in passenger car sales.
The spread of Covid-19 caused a dramatic decline in 2020, with the number of new registrations decreasing by around 15 % worldwide. However, a large part of the decline occurred in the first half of 2020. A recovery started already in the second half of the year, albeit to varying degrees depending on the country.
2017年, 乘用车和商用车全球新车销量已经达到峰值,超过9700万辆,
从那时起,新兴市场,特别是金砖四国的销量势头下降,导致乘用车销量下降.新冠的传播导致2020年全球新销量大幅下降,减少了约15%.
当然其中很大一部分下降发生在2020年上半年.当年下半年,各国经济已经开始复苏,尽管复苏程度因国家而异.
Pandemic: huge factor
新冠大流行:一个重要因素
Calling 2021 a “crisis year” seems trivial at first glance. The ongoing Corona pandemic continues to affect people and many sectors of the economy face immense problems. With regard to the car industry, however, the situation cannot be summarised so simply: While the Corona crisis and the ongoing semiconductor shortage pose immense challenges to the industry as a whole, the ongoing problems are increasingly dividing the auto industry into winners and losers.
While numerous suppliers have to fight for their survival, carmakers are generating unprecedented profits as a result of their focus on high-margin models.
称2021年为“危机年”乍一看似乎小题大做了些.正在进行的新冠大流行继续影响着人们,许多经济部门面临巨大的问题.
然而,就汽车行业而言,形势不能这么简单地总结:虽然新冠肺炎危机和持续的半导体短缺对整个行业构成了巨大挑战,但这些问题却日益将汽车行业进行了赢家/输家两极化.尽管众多供应商不得不为生存而战,但汽车制造商们由于专注于高利润车型,正在创造前所未有的利润.
According to an EY study, the world’s 16 largest manufacturers were able to increase their operating profits in the third quarter of 2021 by 11.4 % to a new record high, even though sales figures fell by 16 %. The auto industry has not been broken by the crises of 2021, but it has nonetheless fallen into disarray, the consequences of which will manifest themselves not only in the coming year, but probably far beyond. According to the International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (OICA) vehicle production in 2021 was at about 80 million units – in 2019 the output of the industry was more than 90 million units before it dropped to 77 million units in 2019. If one only takes a look at passenger cars the production dropped from some 67 million units (2019) to 55 million units (2020). OICA listed 57 million produced cars in their current production statistics for 2021.
根据安永(EY)的一项研究,尽管销售数据下降了16%,但全球16家最大的制造商在2021年第三季度的营业利润却增长了11.4%,创下历史新高.
汽车行业还没有被2021年的危机击垮,但它已经陷入了混乱,其后果不仅将在未来一年显现出来,而且可能会绵延到后续日子里.根据国际汽车制造商组织(OICA)的数据,2021年汽车产量约为8000万辆——2019年该行业的产量超过9000万辆,之后下降到7700万辆.如果只看乘用车,产量从6700万辆(2019年)下降到5500万辆(2020年).OICA在目前的2021年产量统计中列出了5700万辆汽车.
Slight recovery of the market after sharp drop in 2020
市场在2020年大幅下跌后略有回升
The markets grew in 2021 but are still well below the 2019 levels for both automotive OEM and refinish coatings.
The consulting firm Kusumgar, Nerlfi & Growney (KNG) estimates vehicle production is down -13 % in 2021 from 2019. The experts, therefore, assess coatings consumption are likely down about the same range between 10-15 %. KNG expects the volume for refinish coatings in 2021 is probably only off a little from 2019.
The estimated number of cars on the roads globally is estimated at 1.5 billion units.
2021年市场有所增长,但汽车OEM和修补涂料的市场仍远低于2019年的水平.
咨询公司Kusumgar, Nerlfi & Growney (KNG)估计,2021年汽车产量将比2019年下降13%.因此,专家们估计涂料的消耗可能会下降10- 15%.KNG预计,2021年修补涂料的产量可能只比2019年略有下降.
而目前据估计,全球道路上的汽车数量约为15亿辆.
According to the market research company ChemQuest, automotive coatings, OEM and refinish, hold a share of 6 % (volume) and 12 % (value) of the complete market with paints and coatings.
The figures from IRL’s market researchers give the following order of magnitude in volume: 2020 saw a global of 1.42 million tonnes for automotive OEM coatings and 0.75 million tonnes for refinish. In 2021, volumes grew slightly. For OEM coatings, IRL puts the volume at 1.54 million tonnes and for refinish it is 0.81 million tonnes.
Broken down by region, Asia-Pacific leads the way with 0.84 million tonnes for OEM coatings. America, as a whole continent, follows with about 0.35. Europe is in third place with 0.32 million tonnes. The Middle East and Africa account for just over 40,000 tonnes.
根据市场研究公司ChemQuest的数据,汽车涂料、OEM和修补漆在油漆和涂料的整体市场中占据6%(数量)和12%(价值)的份额.
IRL市场研究人员给出了以下数据:2020年全球汽车OEM涂料产量为142万吨,修补漆产量为75万吨.2021年,销量略有增长.
对于OEM涂料,IRL预计产量为154万吨,而翻新漆的产量为81万吨.
按地区划分,亚太地区以84万吨OEM涂料领先.作为整个大陆,美国紧随其后,约为0.35.欧洲以32万吨排在第三位.中东和非洲占了4万吨多一点.
The complete article can be found in the April issue of the European Coatings Journal.
完整的文章可以在4月份的《欧洲涂料杂志》上找到.
图片来源:Artur Marciniec – Fotolia
翻译:VL-九维,翻译内容未经允许不得转载. |
